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Field research at Yosemite toad breeding site - Dana Meadows, Yosemite National Park
Field research at Yosemite toad breeding site - Dana Meadows, Yosemite National Park
Sadinski W
Papers & Reports Climate’s cascading effects on disease, predation, and hatching success in Anaxyrus canorus, the threatened Yosemite toad
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Authors: Sadinski W, Gallant A L, Cleaver J E | Date: 2020-09-01 | Outlet: Global Ecology and Conservation | Format: .PDF
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed Anaxyrus canorus, the Yosemite toad, as federally threatened in 2014 based upon reported population declines and vulnerability to global-change factors. A. canorus lives only in California’s central Sierra Nevada at medium to sub-alpine elevations. Lands throughout its range are protected from development, but climate and other global-change factors potentially can limit populations. A. canorus reproduces in ultra-shallow wetlands that typically hydrate seasonally via melting of the winter snowpack. Lesser snowpacks in drier years can render wetland water volumes and hydroperiods insufficient to allow for successful breeding and reproduction. Additionally, breeding and embryogenesis occur very soon after wetlands thaw when overnight temperatures can be below freezing. Diseases, such as chytridiomycosis, which recently decimated regional populations of ranid species, also might cause declines of A. canorus populations. However, reported studies focused on whether climate interacts with any pathogens to affect fitness in A. canorus have been scarce. We investigated effects of these factors on A. canorus near Tioga Pass from 1996 to 2001. We found breeding subpopulations were distributed widely but inconsistently among potentially suitable wetlands and frequently consisted of small numbers of adults. We occasionally observed small but not alarming numbers of dead adults at breeding sites. In contrast, embryo mortality often was notably high, with the majority of embryos dead in some egg masses while mortality among coincidental Pseudacris regilla (Pacific treefrog) embryos in deeper water was lower. After sampling and experimentation, we concluded that freezing killed A. canorus embryos, especially near the tops of egg masses, which enabled Saprolegnia diclina (a water mold [Oomycota]) to infect and then spread through egg masses and kill more embryos, often in conjunction with predatory flatworms (Turbellaria spp.). We also concluded exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation did not play a role. Based upon our assessments of daily minimum temperatures recorded around snow-off during years before and after our field study, the freezing potential we observed at field sites during embryogenesis might have been commonplace beyond the years of our field study. However, interactions among snow quantity, the timing of snow-off, and coincidental air temperatures that determine such freezing potential make projections of future conditions highly uncertain, despite overall warming trends. Our results describe important effects from ongoing threats to the fitness and abundance of A. canorus via reduced reproduction success and demonstrate how climate conditions can exacerbate effects from pathogens to threaten the persistence of amphibian populations.
Sampling for stream salamanders
Sampling for stream salamanders
EHC Grant
Papers & Reports A National-Scale Assessment of Mercury Bioaccumulation in United 2 States National Parks Using Dragonfly Larvae As Biosentinels 3 through a Citizen-Science Framework
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Authors: Eagles-Smith CA, Willaker JJ, Nelson SJ, Flanagan CM, Krabbenhoft DP, Chen CY, Ackerman JT, Grant EHC, Pilliod D | Outlet: Environmental Science and Technology
ABSTRACT: We conducted a national-scale assessment of mercury (Hg) bioaccumulation in aquatic ecosystems using dragonfly
larvae as biosentinels by developing a citizen-science network to facilitate biological sampling. Implementing a carefully designed
sampling methodology for citizen scientists, we developed an effective framework for a landscape-level inquiry that might otherwise
be resource limited. We assessed the variation in dragonfly Hg concentrations across >450 sites spanning 100 United States National
Park Service units and examined intrinsic and extrinsic factors associated with the variation in Hg concentrations. Mercury
concentrations ranged between 10.4 and 1411 ng/g of dry weight across sites and varied among habitat types. Dragonfly total Hg
(THg) concentrations were up to 1.8-fold higher in lotic habitats than in lentic habitats and 37% higher in waterbodies, with
abundant wetlands along their margins than those without wetlands. Mercury concentrations in dragonflies differed among families
but were correlated (R2 > 0.80) with each other, enabling adjustment to a consistent family to facilitate spatial comparisons among
sampling units. Dragonfly THg concentrations were positively correlated with THg in both fish and amphibians from the same
locations, indicating that dragonfly larvae are effective indicators of Hg bioavailability in aquatic food webs. Collectively, this
continental-scale study demonstrates the utility of dragonfly larvae for estimating the potential mercury risk to fish and wildlife in
aquatic ecosystems and provides a framework for engaging citizen science as a component of landscape Hg monitoring programs.
Juvenile California newt ([I]Taricha torosa[/I]) from southern California.  The larval stage is very sensitive to rainfall and water availability.
Juvenile California newt (Taricha torosa) from southern California. The larval stage is very sensitive to rainfall and water availability.
USGS
Papers & Reports Amphibian responses in the aftermath of extreme climate events
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Authors: Bucciarelli G M, Clark M, Delaney K S, Riley S P D, Shaffer H B, Fisher R N, Honeycutt R L, Kats L B | Date: 2020-02-25 | Outlet: Scientific Reports 10:3409 | Format: .PDF
Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end
of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events.
Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak
drought conditions in California. From 2008–2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic
amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and
significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However,
body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide
population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the
next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed
in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that
resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change
have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest
that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide
climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.
Papers & Reports Amphibian chytrid prevalence on boreal toads in SE Alaska and NW British Columbia: tests of habitat, life stages, and temporal trends
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Authors: Hossack BR, Adams MJ, Honeycutt RK, Belt JJ, Pyare S | Date: 2020 | Outlet: Diseases of Aquatic Organisms 137:159-165
Tracking and understanding variation in pathogens such as Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
(Bd), the agent of amphibian chytridiomycosis, which has caused population declines
globally, is a priority for many land managers. However, relatively little sampling of amphibian
communities has occurred at high latitudes. We used skin swabs collected during 2005?2017 from
boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas (n = 248), in southeast Alaska (USA; primarily in and near Klondike
Gold Rush National Historical Park [KLGO]) and northwest British Columbia (Canada) to determine
how Bd prevalence varied across life stages, habitat characteristics, local species richness,
and time. Across all years, Bd prevalence peaked in June and was >3 times greater for adult toads
(37.5%) vs. juveniles and metamorphs (11.2%). Bd prevalence for toads in the KLGO area, where
other amphibian species are rare or absent, was highest from river habitats (55.0%), followed by
human-modified upland wetlands (32.3%) and natural upland wetlands (12.7%)—the same rankorder
these habitats are used for toad breeding. None of the 12 Columbia spotted frogs Rana
luteiventris or 2 wood frogs R. sylvatica from the study area tested Bd-positive, although all were
from an area of low host density where Bd has not been detected. Prevalence of Bd on toads in the
KLGO area decreased during 2005?2015. This trend from a largely single-species system may be
encouraging or concerning, depending on how Bd is affecting vital rates, and emphasizes the
need to understand effects of pathogens before translating disease prevalence into management
actions.
Papers & Reports Contrasting demographic responses of toad populations to regionally synchronous pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) dynamics
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Authors: Hossack BR, Russell RE, McCaffery R | Date: 2020 | Outlet: Biological Conservation 241: 108373
Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungal pathogen that causes amphibian chytridiomycosis, has been implicated in population declines globally. To better understand how Bd affects survival and how threats vary spatially and temporally, we conducted long-term (range: 9–13 yrs) capture-recapture studies of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) from three similar communities in western Montana. We also estimated temporal and spatial variation in population-level Bd prevalence among populations and the potential role of co-occurring Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in driving infection dynamics. Hierarchical models that accounted for detection uncertainty revealed Bd reduced apparent survival in one population that declined, was unassociated with survival in one stationary population, and was associated with increased survival in one population that is near extirpation. Despite different effects of Bd on hosts, pathogen prevalence was similar and synchronous across the populations separated by 111 – 176 km. Variation in Bd prevalence was driven partly by seasonal temperatures, but opposite the direction expected. Bd prevalence also decreased sharply over time across all populations, unrelated to trends in temperature, boreal toad survival, or infection dynamics of co-occurring Columbia spotted frogs. Toad Bd prevalence increased when frog abundance was high, consistent with an amplification effect. However, Bd prevalence of toads decreased as Bd prevalence of spotted frogs increased, consistent with a dilution effect. Our results reveal surprising variation in responses to Bd and show pathogen prevalence is not predictive of survival or population risk, and they illustrate the complexity in understanding disease dynamics across multiple populations.

Papers & Reports A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis
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Authors: Howell PE, Hossack BR, Muths E, Sigafus BH, Chenevert-Steffler A, Chandler RB | Date: 2020 | Outlet: Ecological Applications 2020:e02038
Conservation of at-risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two-step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently-developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models that are fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially-explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 years of data on the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50-yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <8% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 5.6% (95% CI: 0?60%) by year 2060. Restoring six ponds by increasing hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to 1.0% (0 ? 11%) in year 2060. We found little evidence that drought influences metapopulation viability when managers have the ability to maintain ponds that hold water throughout the year and are free of invasive species. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.
Post-storm remains of an [I]Amphiuma means[/I].
Post-storm remains of an Amphiuma means.
Jamie Barichivich
Papers & Reports Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate.
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Authors: Walls SC, Barichivich WJ, Chandler J, Meade AM, Milinichik M, O'Donnell KM, Owens ME, Peacock T, Reinman J, Wetsch OE | Date: 2019-05-30 | Outlet: Ecology and Evolution 9(12): 7122-7133. | Format: URL
Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, and other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States, many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. Our purpose herein is to provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short-term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico?s coast in the panhandle region of Florida, experienced storm surge that was 2.3 to 3.3 m above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally-threatened Frosted Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds varied from 80 to 23,100 ?S/cm,compared to 75 to 445 uS/cm in Spring 2018. For those overwashed wetlands that were measured in both Spring and Fall 2018, post-hurricane conductance observations averaged nearly 100 times greater than in the previous Spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non-overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane-prone regions.
Papers & Reports Persistent salinization of surface and groundwater resources from legacy energy development in the Prairie Pothole Region
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Authors: Preston TM, Anderson CW, Thamke JN, Hossack BR, Skalak KJ, Cozzarelli IM | Outlet: Science of the Total Environment 690:522-533

B Stiedl
Papers & Reports Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model
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Authors: Zylstra ER, Swann DE, Hossack BR, Muths E, Steidl RJ | Outlet: Ecological Applications 29: e01859
Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.
Papers & Reports Managing the trifecta of disease, climate, and contaminants: Searching for robust choices under multiple sources of uncertainty
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Authors: Smalling, KL, Eagles-Smith, CA, Katz, RA, Grant, EHC | Date: 2019-05-30 | Outlet: Biological Conservation 236: 153-161 | Format: .PDF
Amphibian populations are exposed to multiple stressors, with potential for synergistic effects. These synergies can increase uncertainty in our ability to characterize the effects of each stressor and to understand the degree to which their effects interact to impact population processes. This uncertainty challenges our ability to identify appropriate management alternatives. Finding solutions that are robust to these uncertainties can improve management when knowledge is absent or equivocal and identify critical knowledge gaps. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are probabilistic graphical models that explicitly account for various sources of uncertainty and are used increasingly by environmental practitioners because of their broad applicability to ecological risk assessments. BBNs allow the user to: 1) generate a conceptual model to link actions to outcomes, 2) use a variety of source data (empirical or expert opinion), 3) explore robust management strategies under uncertainty, 4) use sensitivity analysis to identify opportunities for developing new management actions, and 5) guide the design of data collection for monitoring to improve management decisions. BBNs contribute considerably to environmental research and management because they are transparent and treat uncertainty explicitly. Because of the high level of uncertainty in stressor response, we developed a BBN to conceptually evaluate the effects of potential management actions on amphibian populations exposed to disease, environmental contaminants, and increasingly frequent and severe droughts