Future changes in habitat availability for two specialist snake species in the imperiled rocklands of South Florida, U.S.A

Abstract/Summary

Rockland habitat in South Florida, USA, is a threatened ecosystem that has been lost, fragmented, or degraded because of urbanization or other anthropogenic disturbance. Furthermore, low-lying islands and coastal areas are experiencing sea-level rise (SLR) and an increased frequency and intensity of tidal flooding, putting rockland habitats there at increasing risk of ecological change. We evaluated changes in the extent of rockland habitat under various scenarios of future SLR, tidal flooding, and human development for two endemic state-listed threatened species of snakes, the Rim Rock Crowned Snake (Tantilla oolitica) and the Key Ring-necked Snake (Diadophis punctatus acricus). Both snakes are restricted to South Florida. We used recent and historical species’ records to determine each species’ habitat range. We then estimated the extent of future habitat loss due to SLR and continued human development, as well as degradation of the remaining habitat. We also asked whether the future potential drivers of habitat loss and degradation differ between the two species and across their habitat ranges. We predicted that saltwater intrusion could negatively affect rocklands by 2050, resulting in degradation of 80% of the existing habitat because of an anticipated 42 cm of SLR. Moreover, short-term stochastic events such as storm surge and high tides will increasingly saturate the root zone of rockland vegetation before complete inundation. Most of the rockland habitat used by these two species of snakes will be inundated by 2080. Sea level rise will likely change current rocklands into more halophytic habitat (mangrove or salt marsh wetland) within 50 to 60 years. As much as 47% of rockland habitat will be lost due to human development by 2030. Therefore, immediate mitigation actions may be needed to conserve specialist species within rockland habitat that is threatened by human activities and climate change.

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