Species and their Ecology

We assessed amphibian diversity, rarity, and threats across the U.S. National Park System, which covers 3.5% of the U.S. and 12% of federal lands. At least 230 of 354 (65%) amphibian species native to the U.S. occur in parks. Of the species documented in parks, 17% are considered at-risk globally and 20% are uncategorized, reflecting still-widespread data deficiencies. Parks in the Northwest and Northeast accumulated species most quickly (i.e., steepest species?area relationships). Non-native crayfishes and amphibians occur within 50 km of 60% and 25% of parks, respectively, illustrating the broad threat of non-native predators. Projected mid-century (2040–2069) changes in climatic water deficit, based on 25 climate futures, produced an expected 34% increase in dryness across all parks in the contiguous U.S. territory. Our analyses highlight the extent and regional differences in current and future threats and reveal gaps in species protection, but also reveal opportunities for targeted expansion and active management.

Optimal egg size theory predicts females must balance investment per offspring to maximize fitness. This balance can change based on resources or habitat quality. In wetlands, common aspects of habitat quality are duration of water (hydroperiod) and predator presence. Ectotherms using habitats that dry or contain predators are likely under selection to optimize offspring production. We measured ovum and clutch sizes from wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in 30 wetlands (2014?2019) in Subarctic Canada, where rapid changes in climate are accelerating wetland drying. We predicted wetlands with short hydroperiods would have larger ova, smaller clutch sizes, and larger ovum-to-clutch-sizes than wetlands with long hydroperiods or with fish predators. We found partial support for our predictions, with larger ova in habitats with short hydroperiods and no fish. We did not, however, find evidence of larger clutch sizes in wetlands with fish or a relationship with ovum-to-clutch size. Given the large environmental changes that are already occurring, our study is novel as one of the first to implicate these rapid changes as potential selective agents on reproductive output in an ectotherm.

Ecologists can learn a lot about species by studying the precise locations in which they do (and do not) occur, but the location information associated with many species records is imprecise. A prominent example of this is the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), in which volunteer observers have surveyed birds at points along consistent routes across the United States for over fifty-five years. As the BBS was designed for large-scale analyses, detailed location information for each bird count is not recorded. We estimate location uncertainty, and the resulting uncertainty in land cover covariates, for the BBS data and present a modeling method that accounts for this uncertainty in a way that opens new possibilities for fine-scale uses of this extensive dataset, unlocking its potential to advance the study of the relationships between birds and their immediate habitat. More broadly, our methods and modeling framework could be used in a variety of situations in which covariate or location uncertainty is a challenge.