Invasive Species

Understanding the origin and spread of invasive species is critical for predicting when and where new introductions will establish, and impact native species. However, due to the complexity of contributing factors such as multiple introductions, dispersal method, genetic admixture in founding populations, and variable propagule pressure, genetic patterns observed in invasive species may not always conform to a single theoretical expectation. Cuban treefrogs (Osteopilus septentrionalis) are invasive in peninsular Florida and sporadically in the Florida panhandle. Though O. septentrionalis has been occasionally reported in Louisiana since the 1990s, established populations were not present until the discovery of a breeding population in New Orleans in 2017. In this study we investigated the source of this novel population using existing and newly generated cytochrome B (cyt-b) mitochondrial gene sequences from the native and invasive range of O. septentrionalis. We recovered a total of 14 cyt-b haplotypes, nine novel and five previously published. Within the 95 Louisiana invasion samples, we recovered seven haplotypes including five novel haplotypes. The haplotypes most common in Louisiana were shared exclusively with west and east Florida localities in central Florida, indicating a possible source population. The presence of haplotypes private to the Louisiana locality suggests other unsampled localities may also be contributing to the Louisiana settlement. Metrics of genetic diversity across native and invasive localities did not significantly differ. Furthermore, the Louisiana samples had higher genetic diversity than any single location sampled within Florida. Thus, genetic diversity and our haplotype connectivity suggest the Louisiana population is derived from multiple introductions from Florida. Our study highlights how demographic and genetic analyses can be utilized to understand the source and future expansion potential of invasive populations.

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

We assessed amphibian diversity, rarity, and threats across the U.S. National Park System, which covers 3.5% of the U.S. and 12% of federal lands. At least 230 of 354 (65%) amphibian species native to the U.S. occur in parks. Of the species documented in parks, 17% are considered at-risk globally and 20% are uncategorized, reflecting still-widespread data deficiencies. Parks in the Northwest and Northeast accumulated species most quickly (i.e., steepest species?area relationships). Non-native crayfishes and amphibians occur within 50 km of 60% and 25% of parks, respectively, illustrating the broad threat of non-native predators. Projected mid-century (2040–2069) changes in climatic water deficit, based on 25 climate futures, produced an expected 34% increase in dryness across all parks in the contiguous U.S. territory. Our analyses highlight the extent and regional differences in current and future threats and reveal gaps in species protection, but also reveal opportunities for targeted expansion and active management.