Invasive Species

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

We assessed amphibian diversity, rarity, and threats across the U.S. National Park System, which covers 3.5% of the U.S. and 12% of federal lands. At least 230 of 354 (65%) amphibian species native to the U.S. occur in parks. Of the species documented in parks, 17% are considered at-risk globally and 20% are uncategorized, reflecting still-widespread data deficiencies. Parks in the Northwest and Northeast accumulated species most quickly (i.e., steepest species?area relationships). Non-native crayfishes and amphibians occur within 50 km of 60% and 25% of parks, respectively, illustrating the broad threat of non-native predators. Projected mid-century (2040–2069) changes in climatic water deficit, based on 25 climate futures, produced an expected 34% increase in dryness across all parks in the contiguous U.S. territory. Our analyses highlight the extent and regional differences in current and future threats and reveal gaps in species protection, but also reveal opportunities for targeted expansion and active management.

Biodiversity is generally reduced when non-native species invade an ecosystem. Invasive crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, populate California freshwater streams, and in the Santa Monica Mountains (Los Angeles, USA), their introduction has led to trophic cascades due to omnivorous feeding behavior and a rapid rate of population growth. The native California newt, Taricha torosa, possesses a neurotoxin, tetrodotoxin (TTX), that affects freshwater animal behavior. Given P. clarkii has a limited evolutionary history with TTX, we hypothesized that TTX may affect crayfish feeding behaviors. To determine if TTX affects P. clarkii behavior, we measured cumulative movement and various feeding behaviors of P. clarkii exposed to (i) waterborne, ecologically realistic concentrations of TTX (~?3.0?×?10??8 moles/L), (ii) an anuran chemical cue to account for intraguild cues, or (iii) a T. torosa chemical cue with quantitated TTX in it (~?6.2?×?10??8 moles/L).

Results
We found that the presence of TTX in any form significantly reduced crayfish movement and decreased the amount of food consumed over time. Crayfish responses to the anuran treatment did not significantly differ from controls.

Conclusion
Our laboratory results show that naturally occurring neurotoxin from native California newts limits invasive crayfish foraging and feeding rates, which may play a role in preserving local stream ecosystems by limiting invasive crayfish behaviors that are detrimental to biodiversity.