Influence of Drought on Salamander Occupancy of Isolated Wetlands on the Southeastern Coastal Plain of the United States

Abstract/Summary

In the southeastern U.S., changes in temperature and precipitation over the last three decades have been the most dramatic in winter and spring seasons. Continuation of these trends could negatively impact pond-breeding amphibians, especially those that rely on winter and spring rains to fill seasonal wetlands, trigger breeding, and ensure reproductive success. From 2009 to 2012, we monitored aquatic stages (larval and paedomorphic, gilled adult) of a winter-breeding amphibian (the mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum) and used a single-species, multi-season model to estimate occupancy, detection probability, local colonization and extinction. Annual estimates of occupancy, corrected for imperfect detection, ranged from 9.9 to 23.1%, with the rate of change in occupancy probabilities between sampling seasons fluctuating over time. Our best supported model suggested that this change in occupancy was driven by an increase in estimates of extinction probabilities which, in turn, corresponded with an increase in drought over time. In contrast, colonization was low and less variable. A future climate change scenario of severe, prolonged drought could result in regional losses of seasonal wetlands and a concomitant change in the occupancy dynamics of aquatic amphibians.

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