Search ARMI Database

Tracking and understanding variation in pathogens such as Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
(Bd), the agent of amphibian chytridiomycosis, which has caused population declines
globally, is a priority for many land managers. However, relatively little sampling of amphibian
communities has occurred at high latitudes. We used skin swabs collected during 2005?2017 from
boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas (n = 248), in southeast Alaska (USA; primarily in and near Klondike
Gold Rush National Historical Park [KLGO]) and northwest British Columbia (Canada) to determine
how Bd prevalence varied across life stages, habitat characteristics, local species richness,
and time. Across all years, Bd prevalence peaked in June and was >3 times greater for adult toads
(37.5%) vs. juveniles and metamorphs (11.2%). Bd prevalence for toads in the KLGO area, where
other amphibian species are rare or absent, was highest from river habitats (55.0%), followed by
human-modified upland wetlands (32.3%) and natural upland wetlands (12.7%)—the same rankorder
these habitats are used for toad breeding. None of the 12 Columbia spotted frogs Rana
luteiventris or 2 wood frogs R. sylvatica from the study area tested Bd-positive, although all were
from an area of low host density where Bd has not been detected. Prevalence of Bd on toads in the
KLGO area decreased during 2005?2015. This trend from a largely single-species system may be
encouraging or concerning, depending on how Bd is affecting vital rates, and emphasizes the
need to understand effects of pathogens before translating disease prevalence into management
actions.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungal pathogen that causes amphibian chytridiomycosis, has been implicated in population declines globally. To better understand how Bd affects survival and how threats vary spatially and temporally, we conducted long-term (range: 9–13 yrs) capture-recapture studies of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) from three similar communities in western Montana. We also estimated temporal and spatial variation in population-level Bd prevalence among populations and the potential role of co-occurring Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in driving infection dynamics. Hierarchical models that accounted for detection uncertainty revealed Bd reduced apparent survival in one population that declined, was unassociated with survival in one stationary population, and was associated with increased survival in one population that is near extirpation. Despite different effects of Bd on hosts, pathogen prevalence was similar and synchronous across the populations separated by 111 – 176 km. Variation in Bd prevalence was driven partly by seasonal temperatures, but opposite the direction expected. Bd prevalence also decreased sharply over time across all populations, unrelated to trends in temperature, boreal toad survival, or infection dynamics of co-occurring Columbia spotted frogs. Toad Bd prevalence increased when frog abundance was high, consistent with an amplification effect. However, Bd prevalence of toads decreased as Bd prevalence of spotted frogs increased, consistent with a dilution effect. Our results reveal surprising variation in responses to Bd and show pathogen prevalence is not predictive of survival or population risk, and they illustrate the complexity in understanding disease dynamics across multiple populations.

Boreal Toads (Anaxryus boreas, previously Bufo boreas) have been monitored in and around Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park (KLGO) since 2004. Because of their significant cultural and ecological importance, and due to threats of habitat change and the presence of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis), the surveillance of Boreal Toad populations has become a priority. We analyzed data collected by the park during 2005–2018 to assess the global trend of toads’ occupancy in KLGO. To provide insight into the likelihood that sites produce metamorphs, we also estimated survival of larvae from early in the season (June-July) to late season (July-August) at 8 core sites that were surveyed intensively during most years. In addition, we used simulations and statistical power analyses to make recommendations on how to improve the sampling design of this monitoring program.

In metapopulations, dispersal and population growth rates are influenced by patch quality, spatial structure, and local population density. Recently developed spatial metapopulation models allow inferences about distance effects on dispersal, but these models typically focus on patch occupancy rather than abundance of animals. Spatial occupancy models are useful for studying colonization-extinction dynamics, but richer insights can be gained from estimating abundance and density-dependent demographic rates. We used presence-absence and count data from an 11-year study of a reintroduced metapopulation of federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis) to develop an integrated abundance-based metapopulation model to draw inferences about the processes contributing to spatiotemporal variation in density. Pond-specific population growth was influenced by pond hydroperiod and frog density, such that permanent and semi-permanent ponds with low densities of adult frogs experienced the highest annual population growth. Immigration rate declined as the distance among ponds increased. Metapopulation-level abundance increased from 2004 until 2015, when it stabilized around 1323 adult frogs (95% CI, 1166–1539). Further, changes in metapopulation abundance were driven mostly by changes in abundance at a few ponds. These high-density populations, which would not have been identifiable with traditional metapopulation models, are likely especially important for species recovery in the area. Our study extends existing statistical models of metapopulation dynamics by focusing on abundance and making it possible to test hypotheses regarding the influence of pond quality and density on local dynamics and colonization.

Habitat loss and degradation are leading causes of biodiversity declines, therefore assessing the capacity of created mitigation wetlands to replace habitat for wildlife has become a management priority. We used single season occupancy models to compare occurrence of larvae of four species of pond-breeding amphibians in wetlands created for mitigation, wetlands impacted by road construction, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, U.S.A. Created wetlands were shallow and had less aquatic vegetation and surface area than impacted and reference wetlands. Occupancy of barred tiger salamander (Ambystoma mavortium) and boreal chorus frog (Pseudacris maculata) larvae was similar across wetland types, whereas boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) occurred more often in created wetlands than reference and impacted wetlands. However, the majority of created wetlands (> 80%) dried partially or completely before amphibian metamorphosis occurred in both years of our study, resulting in heavy mortality of larvae and, we suspect, little to no recruitment. Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris), which require emergent vegetation that is not common in newly-created wetlands, occurred commonly in impacted and reference wetlands but were found in only one created wetland. Our results show that shallow created wetlands with little aquatic vegetation may be attractive breeding areas for some amphibians, but may result in high mortality and little recruitment if they fail to hold water for the entire larval period.

Despite increasing interest in determining the population-level effects of emerging infectious diseases on wildlife, estimating effects of disease on survival rates remains difficult. Even for a well-studied disease such as amphibian chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]), there are few estimates of how survival of wild hosts is affected. We applied hierarchical models to long-term capture-mark-recapture data (mean = 10.6 yrs, range = 6?15 yrs) from >5500 uniquely-marked individuals to estimate the effect of Bd on apparent survival of four threatened or endangered ranid frog species (Rana draytonii, R. muscosa, R. pretiosa, R. sierrae) at 14 study sites in California and Oregon (USA) and one bufonid toad (Anaxyrus boreas) at two study sites in Wyoming and Montana. Our models indicated that the presence of Bd on an individual reduced apparent survival of ranid frogs by ~6?15% depending on species and sex. The estimated difference between toads with and without Bd was 19% for the Montana population and 55% for the Wyoming population; however, the 95% Credible Interval of these estimates included zero. These results provide evidence for negative effects of Bd on survival in wild populations even in the absence of obvious die-offs. Determining what factors influence the magnitude of the effects of Bd on wildlife populations is an important next step toward identifying management actions. These estimates of Bd effects are important for understanding the extent and severity of disease, whether disease effects have changed over time, and for informing management actions.

Many aquatic species in the arid USA-Mexico borderlands region are imperiled, but limited information on
distributions and threats often hinders management. To provide information on the distribution of the Western Tiger
Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium), including the USA-federally endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma
mavortium stebbinsi), we used traditional (seines, dip-nets) and modern (environmental DNA [eDNA]) methods to sample
91 waterbodies in northern Sonora, Mexico, during 2015-2018. The endemic Sonoran Tiger Salamander is threatened by
introgressive hybridization and potential replacement by another sub-species of theWestern Tiger Salamander, the non-native
Barred Tiger Salamander (A. m. mavortium). Based on occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection, eDNA
sampling provided a similar detection probability (https://0.82 [95% CI: 0.56-0.94]) as seining (https://0.83 [0.46-0.96]) and much higher
detection than dip-netting (https://0.09 [0.02-0.23]). Volume of water filtered had little effect on detection, possibly because turbid
sites had greater densities of salamanders. Salamanders were estimated to occur at 51 sites in 3 river drainages in Sonora.
These results indicate tiger salamanders are much more widespread in northern Sonora than previously documented, perhaps
aided by changes in land and water management practices. However, because the two subspecies of salamanders cannot be
reliably distinguished based on morphology or eDNA methods that are based on mitochondrial DNA, we are uncertain if we
detected only native genotypes or if we documented recent invasion of the area by the non-native sub-species. Thus, there is
an urgent need for methods to reliably distinguish the subspecies so managers can identify appropriate interventions.

Global warming-related changes to freshwater
ecosystems in Arctic and Subarctic regions have
been magnified by nutrient input from increasing
waterfowl populations. To gain insight into how these
changes might affect ecosystem function, we conducted
a mesocosm experiment in the Subarctic by
enriching N and P (1 9, 10 9, and 20 9 treatments)
and increasing mean water temperatures B 3C. We
measured responses of two species of larval amphibians,
periphyton, and phytoplankton. Wood frog
(Rana sylvatica) larvae developed quicker (odds ratio
[OR] for 1C increase = https://0.903, 95% CI 0.892–0.912)
and were more likely to metamorphose (OR https://1.076,
95% CI 0.022–14.73) in warmer waters. Boreal chorus
frogs (Pseudacris maculata) also developed quicker
with warmer temperatures (OR https://0.880, 95% CI
0.860–0.900), despite a non-significant trend toward
reduced survival (OR https://0.853, 95% CI 0.696–1.039).
Periphyton and phytoplankton concentrations
increased with nutrient additions, as did size of wood
frog metamorphs. Periphyton and phytoplankton did
not vary with temperature, but periphyton was limited
by tadpole abundance. Our results highlight the
potential for non-linear responses to ecosystem
change, with species-specific consumer and ecosystem
responses that depend on the magnitude of
changes.

Many natural wetlands around the world have disappeared or been replaced, resulting in the dependence of many wildlife species on small, artificial earthen stock ponds. These ponds provide critical wildlife habitat, such that the accurate detection of water and assessment of inundation extent is required. We applied a full (linear spectral mixture analysis; LSMA) and partial (matched filtering; MF) spectral unmixing algorithm to a 2007 Landsat 5 and a 2014 Landsat 8 satellite image to determine the ability of a time-intensive (i.e., more spectral input; LSMA) vs. a more efficient (less spectral input; MF) spectral unmixing approach to detect and estimate surface water area of stock ponds in southern Arizona, USA and northern Sonora, Mexico. Spearman rank correlations (rs) between modeled and actual inundation areas less than a single Landsat pixel (< 900 m2) were low for both techniques (rs range = https://0.22 to 0.62), but improved for inundation areas > 900 m2 (rs range = https://0.34 to 0.70). Our results demonstrate that the MF approach can model ranked inundation extent of known pond locations with results comparable to or better than LSMA, but further refinement is required for estimating absolute inundation areas and mapping wetlands < 1 Landsat pixel.

Conservation of at-risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two-step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently-developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models that are fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially-explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 years of data on the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50-yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <8% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 5.6% (95% CI: 0?60%) by year 2060. Restoring six ponds by increasing hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to 1.0% (0 ? 11%) in year 2060. We found little evidence that drought influences metapopulation viability when managers have the ability to maintain ponds that hold water throughout the year and are free of invasive species. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.

Life history information sets the foundation for our understanding of ecology and conservation requirements. For many species, this information is lacking even for basic demographic rates such as survival and movement. When survival and movement estimates are available, they are often derived from mixed demographic groups and do not consider differences among life stages or sexes, which is critical because life stages and sexes often contribute differentially to population dynamics. We used hierarchical models informed with spatial capture-mark-recapture data of Ascaphus montanus (Rocky Mountain tailed frog) in 5 streams and A. truei (coastal tailed frog) in 1 stream to estimate variation in survival and movement by sex and age, represented by size. By incorporating survival and movement into a single model, we were able to estimate both parameters with limited bias. Annual survival was similar between sexes of A. montanus (females = https://0.885 [95% CI: 0.614?1], males = https://0.901 [0.657?1]), but was slightly higher for female A. truei (https://0.836 [0.560?0.993]) than for males (https://0.664 [0.354?0.962]). Survival of A. montanus peaked at mid-age, suggesting that lower survival of young and actuarial senescence may influence population demographics. Our models suggest that younger A. montanus moved farther than older individuals, and that females moved farther than males in both species. Our results provide uncommon insight into age- and sex-specific rates of survival and movement that are crucial elements of life-history strategies and are important for modeling population growth and prescribing conservation actions.

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

A research priority can be defined as a knowledge gap that, if resolved, identifies the optimal course of conservation action. We (a group of geographically distributed and multidisciplinary research scientists) used tools from nominal group theory and decision analysis to collaboratively identify and prioritize information needs within the context of disease-associated amphibian decline, in order to develop a strategy that would support US management agency needs. We developed iterated influence diagrams to create and assess a unified research strategy. We illustrated a transparent process for identifying specific knowledge gaps in amphibian disease ecology relevant to environmental management, and then constructed a research plan to address these uncertainties. The resulting priorities include a need to: (1) understand the drivers of the community-disease relationship, (2) determine the mechanisms by which exposure to contaminants influence disease outcomes, (3) identify elements of terrestrial and aquatic habitats that stabilize host-pathogen dynamics, (4) discuss how metapopulations may be managed to reduce the speed and intensity of disease outbreaks, and (5) define the relationship between habitat management and the environmental and host microbiomes. Along with identifying research priorities for disease management, we present the details of the process used to develop a consensus plan for addressing disease-related declines in amphibians on federally managed lands of the United States.

Invasive species are a major threat to the persistence of native species, particularly in systems where ephemeral aquatic habitats have been converted to or replaced by permanent water and predators such as fish have been introduced. Within the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA, the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates [=Rana] catesbeianus) has been successfully eradicated to help recover Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). However, other non-native predators including sunfish (Lepomis spp) are present in some permanent water bodies. During four consecutive years (2014-2017) we detected both the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog and sunfish at one permanent water body in the Altar Valley. This suggests that despite the potential negative effect of predatory fish on amphibians, there may be conditions where the Chiricahua leopard frog may be able to co-occur with this non-native predator. A better understanding of rare situations of co-occurrence with non-native predators may contribute to our understanding of why co-occurrence happens in some but not all systems and whether conservation strategies can be developed in situations where complete eradication of non-native predators is infeasible.

We quantified the response of amphibian communities to climatic variability across the United States and Canada using more than 500,000 observations for 81 species across 86 study areas. We estimated the relationships between annual variation in climate variables and local colonization and persistence probabilities across more than 5000 surveyed sites. This allowed us to estimate sensitivity to change in five climate variables. Climate sensitivity differs greatly among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-history, and phylogeny. Local species richness was especially sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter temperature. These results allowed us to ask whether changing climate explains strong overall rates of decline in species richness observed in our data set. We found that recent change in the climate variables we measured does not explain why North American amphibian richness is rapidly declining, but does explain why some populations decline faster than others.&#8195;