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Papers & Reports Population Dynamics of the Threatened Oregon Spotted Frog (Rana pretiosa) Before and After Drought Mitigation
Authors: Jennifer C Rowe; Christopher A Pearl; Adam Duarte; Brome McCreary; Michael J Adams
Date: 2023-09-22 | Outlet: The Journal of Wildlife Management
Amphibians are among the most sensitive taxa to climate change, and species inhabiting arid and semiarid landscapes at the extremes of their range are especially vulnerable to drought. The Jack Creek, Oregon, USA, population of Oregon spotted frogs (Rana pretiosa) faces unique challenges because it occupies the highest elevation site in the species' extant range and one that has been transformed by loss of American beavers (Castor canadensis[/]), which historically maintained open water. We evaluated the effects of drought mitigation (addition of excavated ponds) on relationships between local and regional water availability, inactive legacy beaver dams, and Oregon spotted frog population dynamics in the Jack Creek system. We conducted egg mass surveys and capture-mark-recapture sampling at a treatment reach with excavated ponds and 3 reference reaches over 13 years; surveys spanned a period before and after pond excavation at the treatment and 1 primary comparison reference reach. We analyzed data using a combination of robust design capture-mark-recapture estimators and generalized linear mixed models to characterize population dynamics. Adult Oregon spotted frog survival was approximately 19.5% higher at the treatment reach than the primary reference reach during the study period. Annual survival was most strongly associated with late summer vegetation greenness, a proxy for water availability, and males had higher survival than females. Among the 4 study reaches, the treatment reach consistently had higher late summer vegetation greenness, and the hydrology functioned more independently of regional precipitation patterns relative to the reference reaches; however, these dynamics were not linked to pond excavation. Breeding was concentrated in 2 legacy beaver ponds that were deepened by excavation during the study compared to an unexcavated beaver pond, 2 excavated ponds without legacy beaver dams, and 9 reference ponds. These results point to the benefit of enhancing existing beaver structures and indicate that management actions aimed at maintaining surface water for breeding in spring and saturated soils and ponded water for adults in late summer would benefit this unique population of Oregon spotted frogs in the face of drought.
Papers & Reports Sierra Nevada amphibians demonstrate stable occupancy despite precipitation volatility in the early 21st Century
Authors: Brian J Halstead; Patrick M Kleeman; Jonathan P Rose; Gary M Fellers
Date: 2023-02-07 | Outlet: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Climate can have a strong influence on species distributions, and amphibians with different life histories might be affected by annual variability in precipitation in different ways. The Sierra Nevada of California, United States, experienced some of the driest and wettest years on record in the early 21st Century, with variability in annual precipitation predicted to increase with climate change. We  examined the relationship between adult occupancy dynamics of three high elevation anurans and site and annual variation in measures of winter severity, summer wetness, and cumulative drought. We further evaluated how these weather conditions affected the probability that each species would reproduce, conditional on their occurrence at a site. We found that although different aspects of weather affected the occupancy dynamics of each species differently, adult occupancy probabilities were generally stable throughout our 15-year study period. The probability of reproduction, although slightly more variable than adult occupancy, was similarly stable throughout the study. Although occurrence of the three species was resilient to recent extremes in precipitation, more detailed demographic study would inform the extent to which amphibian populations will remain resilient to increasing severity, duration, and frequency of drought and flood cycles.
Papers & Reports Range-wide Persistence of the Endangered Arroyo Toad (Anaxyrus californicus) for 20+ Years Following a Prolonged Drought
Authors: C J Hitchcock; Elizabeth A Gallegos; Adam R Backlin; Russell Barabe; Peter H Bloom; Kimberly Boss; Cheryl S Brehme; Christopher W Brown; D R Clark; Elizabeth R Clark; Kevin Cooper; Julie Donnell; Edward L Ervin; Peter Famolaro; Kim M Guilliam; Jacquelyn J Hancock; Nicholas Hess; Steven Howard; Valerie Hubbartt; Patrick Lieske; Robert E Lovich; Tritia Matsuda; Katherin Meyer-Wilkins; Kamarul Muri; Barry Nerhus; J A Nordland; Brock Ortega; Robert H Packard; Ruben Ramirez; Sam C Stewart; S Sweet; M L Warburton; Jeffrey Wells; Ryan Winkleman; Kirsten Winter; Brian Zitt; Robert N Fisher
Date: 2022-03 | Outlet: Ecology and Evolution 12:e8796
Prolonged drought due to climate change has negatively impacted amphibians in southern California, U.S.A. Due to the severity and length of the current drought,
agencies and researchers had growing concern for the persistence of the arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), an endangered endemic amphibian in this region. Range-wide surveys for this species had not been conducted for at least 20 years. In 2017–2020, we conducted collaborative surveys for arroyo toads at historical locations. We surveyed 88 of the 115 total sites having historical records and confirmed that the arroyo toad is currently extant in at least 61 of 88 sites and 20 of 25 historically occupied watersheds. We did not detect toads at almost a third of the surveyed sites but did detect toads at 18 of 19 specific sites delineated in the 1999 Recovery Plan to meet one of four downlisting criteria. Arroyo toads are estimated to live 7–8 years, making populations susceptible to prolonged drought. Drought is estimated to increase in frequency and duration with climate change. Mitigation strategies for drought impacts, invasive aquatic species, altered flow regimes, and other anthropogenic effects could be the most beneficial strategies for toad conservation and may also provide simultaneous benefits to several other native species that share the same habitat.
Papers & Reports Looking ahead, guided by the past: The role of U.S. national parks in amphibian research and conservation
Authors: Brian J Halstead; Andrew M Ray; Erin Muths; Evan HC Grant; Rob L Grasso; Michael J Adams; Katy S Delaney; Jane Carlson; Blake R Hossack
Date: 2022-03 | Outlet: Ecological Indicators
Protected areas like national parks are essential elements of conservation because they limit human influence on the landscape, which protects biodiversity and ecosystem function. The role of national parks in conservation, however, often goes far beyond limiting human influence. The U.S. National Park Service and its system of land units contribute substantively to conservation by providing protected lands where researchers can document trends in species distributions and abundances, examine characteristics important for generating these trends, and identify and implement conservation strategies to preserve biodiversity. We reviewed the contribution of U.S. national parks to amphibian research and conservation and highlight important challenges and findings in several key areas. First, U.S. national parks were instrumental in providing strong support that amphibian declines were real and unlikely to be simply a consequence of habitat loss. Second, research in U.S. national parks provided evidence against certain hypothesized causes of decline, like UV-B radiation, and evidence for others, such as introduced species and disease. However, describing declines and identifying causes contributes to conservation only if it leads to management; importantly, U.S. national parks have implemented many conservation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in recovering robust amphibian populations. Among these, removal of invasive species, especially fishes; conservation translocations; and habitat creation and enhancement stand out as examples of successful conservation strategies with broad applicability. Successful management for amphibians is additionally complicated by competing mandates and stakeholder interests; for example, past emphasis on increasing visitor enjoyment by introducing fish to formerly fishless lakes had devastating consequences for many amphibians. Other potential conflicts with amphibian conservation include increasing development, increased risk of introductions of disease and exotic species with increased visitation, and road mortality. Decision science and leveraging partnerships have proven to be key components of effective conservation under conflicting mandates in national parks. As resource managers grapple with large-scale drivers that are outside local control, public-private partnerships and adaptive strategies are increasing in importance. U.S. national parks have played an important role in many aspects of identifying and ameliorating the amphibian decline crisis and will continue to be essential for the conservation of amphibians in the future.
Papers & Reports Conservation of Northwestern and Southwestern Pond Turtles: Threats, Population Size Estimates, and Population Viability Analysis
Authors: S Manzo; E Nicholson; Z Devereux; Robert N Fisher; Christopher W Brown; P Scott; H B Shaffer
Date: 2021-12 | Outlet: Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 12(2):485-501;e1944-687X
Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida. Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT (P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.
Papers & Reports Western pond turtles in the Mojave Desert? A review of their past, present, and possible future
Authors: J Lovich; G . Jefferson; Robert Reynolds; P Scott; H B Shaffer; Shellie Puffer; Sarah Greely; Kristy Cummings; Robert N Fisher; Katherin Meyer-Wilkins; Doug Gomez; Morgan Ford; Christopher D. Otahal
Date: 2021-05-25 | Outlet: Vertebrate Zoology 71:317-334.
The western pond turtle (WPT) was formerly considered a single species (Actinemys or Emys marmorata[I/}) that ranged from southern British Columbia, Canada to Baja California, México. More recently it was divided into a northern and a southern species. WPTs are found primarily in streams that drain into the Pacific Ocean, although scattered populations exist in endorheic drainages of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. Populations in the Mojave Desert were long thought to be restricted to the Mojave River, but recently another population was documented in Piute Ponds, a terminal wetland complex associated with Amargosa Creek on Edwards Air Force Base. WPT fossils in the Mojave Desert are known from the Miocene to the Pleistocene. Recently, Pleistocene fossils have been found as far into the desert as Salt Springs, just south of Death Valley. The oldest fossil records suggest that WPTs were present in wetlands and drainages of the geological feature known as the Mojave block prior to the uplift of the Sierra Nevada Range about 8 Ma and prior to the ~ 3 Ma uplift of the Transverse Ranges. Archaeological records document use of turtles by Native Americans for food and cultural purposes 1,000 or more years ago at the Cronese Lakes on the lower Mojave River and Oro Grande on the upper river. The first modern publication documenting their presence in the Mojave River was 1861. Museum specimens were collected as early as 1937. These fossil and early literature records support the indigenous status of WPTs to the Mojave River. However, mtDNA-based genetic evidence shows that Mojave River turtles share an identical haplotype with turtles on the California coast. Limited nuclear data show some minor differences. Overdraft of the Mojave River for municipal and agricultural uses, urban development, and saltcedar expansion are threats to the continued survival of WPTs in the Mojave River.
Papers & Reports Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring
Authors: W Moss; T McDevitt-Galles; Erin Muths; Steven Bobzien; J Purificato; P TJ Johnson
1. The increasing frequency and severity of drought has the potential to exacerbate existing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought-induced declines. The application of dynamic occupancy modeling to longitudinal monitoring data estimates the effect of specific variables on population change, providing key insights into potential management strategies for drought resilience.
2. We synthesized a decade (2009 – 2019) of amphibian survey data from multiple monitoring programs across the California Bay Area and used occupancy modeling to estimate the influence of drought, invasive species, and land use on species’ persistence and colonization probabilities. The geographic and temporal scale of our dataset, consisting of 2574 surveys of seven species in 473 ponds, allowed us to quantify regional trends for an entire community of pond-breeding amphibians.
3. An extreme drought from 2012 – 2015 resulted in losses of breeding sites, with 51% of ponds drying in 2014 compared to <10% in non-drought years. Pond drying reduced persistence rates, and nearly every species exhibited reduced occupancy during the drought, with some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by > 25%. Drought reduced occupancy via additional mechanisms beyond habitat loss; for example, lower spring precipitation (an important cue for breeding) was associated with reduced colonization.
4. During drought, native species’ persistence was higher in permanent relative to temporary ponds, even though these sites were also more likely to contain invasive fish and bullfrogs, which generally reduced native amphibian occupancy. Many of these permanent ponds dried during the worst year of drought, leading to extirpations of invasive species that appeared long-lasting. In contrast, native species rebounded quickly with returning rains and showed evidence of full recovery.
5. Synthesis and applications: Despite experiencing one of most severe droughts in a millennium, native species displayed high resilience. Due to longer recovery times by non-native relative to native species, drought presents a valuable management opportunity to remove invaders from key refugia, and we highlight the value of maintaining hydroperiod diversity to promote the persistence of multiple species.
Papers & Reports Staggered-entry analysis of breeding and occupancy dynamics of Arizona Toads from historically occupied habitats of New Mexico, USA
Authors: M J Forzley; Mason J Ryan; I M Latella; J T Giermakowski; Erin Muths; Brent H Sigafus; Blake R Hossack
Date: 2021 | Outlet: Ichthyology & Herpetology
For species with variable phenology, it is often challenging to produce reliable estimates of population dynamics or changes in occupancy. The Arizona Toad (Anaxyrus microscaphus) is a southwestern USA endemic that has been petitioned for legal protection, but status assessments are limited by a lack of information on population trends. Also, timing and consistency of Arizona Toad breeding varies greatly, making it difficult to predict optimal survey times or effort required for detection. To help fill these information gaps, we conducted breeding season call surveys during 2013–2016 and 2019 at 86 historically occupied sites and 59 control sites across the species’ range in New Mexico. We estimated variation in mean dates of arrival and departure from breeding sites, changes in occupancy, and site-level extinction since 1959 with recently developed multi-season staggered-entry models, which relax the within-season closure assumption common to most occupancy models. Optimal timing of surveys in our study areas was approximately March 5 - March 30. Averaged across years, estimated probability of occupancy was https://0.58 (SE = 0.09) for historical sites and https://0.19 (SE = 0.08) for control sites. Occupancy increased from 2013 through 2019. Notably, even though observer error was trivial, annual detection probabilities varied from https://0.23 to https://0.75 and declined during the study; this means naïve occupancy values would have been misleading, indicating apparent declines in toad occupancy. Occupancy was lowest during the first year of the study, possibly due to changes in stream flows and conditions in many waterbodies following extended drought and recent wildfires. Although within-season closure was violated by variable calling phenology, simple multi-season models provided nearly identical estimates as staggered-entry models. Surprisingly, extinction probability was unrelated to the number of years since the first or last record at historically occupied sites. Collectively, our results suggest a lack of large, recent declines in occupancy by Arizona Toads in New Mexico, but we still lack population information from most of the species’ range.
Papers & Reports The Coyote Mountains’ Desert Snail (Sonorelix harperi carrizoensis), a Lazarus Species with the First Documentation of Live Individuals
Authors: Robert N Fisher; S R Fisher
Date: 2020-08 | Outlet: Bulletin Southern California Academy of Sciences 119:49-54.
The Coyote Mountain desert snail (Sonorelix harperi carrizoensis) was described in 1937 from 30 dry shells collected the previous year. We reviewed the literature and museum records and found two additional shell collections for this subspecies from the type locality one from 1958, and one from an adjacent mountain range in 1938. There is no evidence previously of any live snails being collected from the Coyote Mountains, Imperial County, California. All shell collections of S. harperi carrizoensis have the same locality data as the type series, which is Painted Gorge, Coyote Mountains except for one recorded collection of shells from the Vallecito Mountains from 1938. Using geological maps and other data sources, a potential mesic habitat was identified in the Coyote Mountains. During recent field work for salamanders at this location we detected two live specimens of S. harperi carrizoensis approximately 2 km north of its type location. This new data confirms this subspecies is still extant and has occurred at least at two sites historically in these mountains. Despite the presence of mesic habitats (i.e., mosses, liverworts and ferns) at the type locality, we found no evidence of S. harperi carrizoensis or salamanders.
Papers & Reports When Introduced Prey Violates Trophic Hierarchy: Conservation of an Endangered Predator
Authors: Richard Kim; Brian J Halstead; E Routman; Julie Andersen
Date: 2021-03-03 | Outlet: Biological Conservation 256
Introduced species often disrupt established food webs, but some native predators can come to rely on introduced prey. Understanding the net effects of the non-natives on imperiled predators is crucial for planning conservation measures. The invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) can be prey, predator, and competitor for the critically endangered San Francisco garter snake (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia). We examined the seasonal prey use of a San Francisco garter snake population that co-occurs with American bullfrogs to examine intraguild predation between these species. Juvenile and adult snakes mainly consumed native anurans instead of American bullfrogs, and this diet pattern peaked in spring, a critical foraging period for the snakes. In spring, large adult American bullfrogs also foraged heavily on native anurans and displayed a high degree of diet overlap with San Francisco garter snakes. Invasive American bullfrogs are detrimental to San Francisco garter snakes mainly through seasonal competition rather than reciprocal predation. Removal of invasive species provided further evidence that eliminating American bullfrogs can benefit San Francisco garter snakes by reducing predation pressure on their shared amphibian prey. Better understanding the interactions of invasive species with native species of conservation concern informs management practices and improves conservation outcomes.
Papers & Reports Hydroperiod and previous breeding success influence recruitment dynamics for a declining amphibian species
Authors: J Crockett; Erin Muths; Larissa L Bailey
Date: 2020-02 | Outlet: Population Ecology, 62(2), pp.258-268.
Populations of pond-breeding amphibians often have boom and bust patterns in recruitment, with large numbers of individuals metamorphosing in some years and few or none in other years. Environmental processes, such as pond freezing and drying, and biological factors (e.g., disease and predator community) can influence survival of early life stages and the probability of complete reproductive failure for amphibian populations. We used multi-state occupancy models to estimate probability of breeding and successful metamorphosis (the complements of reproductive failure), and explored environmental and biological factors influencing these processes.We applied both static and dynamic multistate occupancy modeling techniques to ten years (2001-2010) of boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) data from 116 sites, and tested relationships between these probabilities and the presence of a pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis), elevation, hydrology, relative snowpack in a given year, and the presence of trout (Onchorhyncus spp., Salvelinus fontinalis, and Salmo trutta). The probability of breeding at a site was influenced by elevation, with higher-elevation sites more likely to support breeding. The probability of metamorphosis, given breeding, was influenced by an interaction between hydrology and relative annual snowpack. The probability of metamorphosis was higher at ephemeral sites in years of relatively high snowpack, while at permanent sites, years of low snowpack lead to higher probabilities of metamorphosis. Across all sites, the probability of metamorphosis was high (0.75) for years with median snowpack levels at sites with recent breeding attempts, but lower (0.25) at newly colonized sites. Our results suggest that boreal toads are well-adapted to their current habitat, with both ephemeral and permanent sites likely to support breeding in years of median snowpack. However shifts in precipitation patterns or temperatures may have negative impacts on this species.
Papers & Reports Reptile and amphibian diversity and abundance in an urban landscape: Impacts of fragmentation and the conservation value of small patches.
Authors: Katy S Delaney; Gary T Busteed; Robert N Fisher; Seth PD Riley
Date: 2021-05-31 | Outlet: Ichthyology & Herpetology 109:424-435
Urbanization is a major contributor to habitat loss and fragmentation and is considered a global threat to biodiversity. We studied reptile and amphibian species diversity and abundance in a highly fragmented landscape adjacent to the second largest metropolitan area in the United States. Habitat patches in our study area were made up of remnant native vegetation surrounded by roads, housing, and other urban development. Species richness and diversity were positively associated with patch size, but patch age was not significantly associated with community characteristics. Four relatively common species were not detected in the small patches, indicating the possibility they had been extirpated by the time monitoring began, and six rarer species were not detected or detected only once in these patches. Although the patch size effect on species diversity was strong, we found that several of the small habitat patches had similar diversity to large patches, indicating potential value of these small habitat patches in protecting species as “microreserves”. In addition, one lizard species was found to be significantly more abundant in the smaller patches. To determine if abundance changed over time, we compared capture rates for four common lizards at the same sites 10 years later. For 3 of the 4 species, abundance decreased over that period, specifically in the small patches. Although our long-term monitoring has confirmed that the full suite of herpetofauna is currently preserved in the park overall, declines even in the common species over time hint at the potential severity of the threat of urbanization to rare species.
Papers & Reports Survival estimates for the invasive American Bullfrog
Authors: P E Howell; Erin Muths; Brent H Sigafus; Blake R Hossack
Outlet: Amphibia-Reptilia
We used five years of capture mark-recapture data to estimate annual apparent survival of post-metamorphic bullfrogs in a population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in their invaded range in Arizona, U.S.A.
Papers & Reports Estimating inundation of small waterbodies with sub-pixel analysis of Landsat imagery: long-term trends in surface water area and evaluation of common drought indices
Authors: I Sall; Christopher J Jarchow; Brent H Sigafus; Lisa A Eby; M J Forzley; Blake R Hossack
Outlet: Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation
Small waterbodies are numerically dominant in many landscapes and provide several important ecosystem services, but automated measurement of waterbodies smaller than a standard Landsat pixel (https://0.09 ha) remains challenging. To further evaluate sub-Landsat pixel techniques for estimating inundation extent of small waterbodies (basin area: https://0.06https://1.79 ha), we used a partial spectral unmixing method with matched filtering applied to September 1985–2018 Landsat 5 and 8 imagery from southern Arizona, USA. We estimated trends in modeled surface water area each September and evaluated the ability of several common drought indices to explain variation in mean water area. Our methods accurately classified waterbodies as dry or inundated (Landsat 5: 91.3%; Landsat 8: 98.9%) and modeled and digitized surface water areas were strongly correlated (R2 = https://0.70https://0.92; bias = -https://0.024 – -https://0.015 ha). Estimated surface water area was best explained by the 3-month seasonal standardized precipitation index (SPI03; July?September) and. We found a wide range of estimated relationships between drought indices (e.g., SPI vs. Palmer Drought Severity Index) and estimated water area, even for different durations of the same drought index (e. g., SPI01 vs SPI12). Mean surface area of waterbodies decreased by ~14% from September 1985 to September 2018, which matched declines in annual precipitation in the area and is consistent with broader trends of reduced inundation extent based on larger waterbodies. Estimated of surface water area and trends over time were also consistent when we limited analyses to waterbodies ? https://0.04 ha or those that varied most in size (based on CV). These results emphasize the importance of understanding local systems when relying on drought indices to infer variation in past or future surface water dynamics. Several challenges remain before widespread application of sub-pixel methods is feasible, but our results provide further evidence that partial spectral unmixing with matched filtering provides reliable measures of inundation extent of small waterbodies.
Papers & Reports Amphibian responses in the aftermath of extreme climate events
Authors: Gary Bucciarelli; M Clark; Katy S Delaney; Seth PD Riley; H Shaffer; Robert N Fisher; R L Honeycutt; Lee B Kats
Date: 2020-02-25 | Outlet: Scientific Reports 10:3409
Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end
of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events.
Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak
drought conditions in California. From 2008–2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic
amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and
significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However,
body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide
population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the
next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed
in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that
resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change
have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest
that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide
climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.
Papers & Reports Using Full and Partial Unmixing Algorithms to Estimate the Inundation Extent of Small, Isolated Stock Ponds in an Arid Landscape
Authors: Christopher J Jarchow; Brent H Sigafus; Erin Muths; Blake R Hossack
Date: 2019-08 | Outlet: Wetlands
Many natural wetlands around the world have disappeared or been replaced, resulting in the dependence of many wildlife species on small, artificial earthen stock ponds. These ponds provide critical wildlife habitat, such that the accurate detection of water and assessment of inundation extent is required. We applied a full (linear spectral mixture analysis; LSMA) and partial (matched filtering; MF) spectral unmixing algorithm to a 2007 Landsat 5 and a 2014 Landsat 8 satellite image to determine the ability of a time-intensive (i.e., more spectral input; LSMA) vs. a more efficient (less spectral input; MF) spectral unmixing approach to detect and estimate surface water area of stock ponds in southern Arizona, USA and northern Sonora, Mexico. Spearman rank correlations (rs) between modeled and actual inundation areas less than a single Landsat pixel (< 900 m2) were low for both techniques (rs range = https://0.22 to 0.62), but improved for inundation areas > 900 m2 (rs range = https://0.34 to 0.70). Our results demonstrate that the MF approach can model ranked inundation extent of known pond locations with results comparable to or better than LSMA, but further refinement is required for estimating absolute inundation areas and mapping wetlands < 1 Landsat pixel.
Papers & Reports A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis
Authors: P E Howell; Blake R Hossack; Erin Muths; Brent H Sigafus; A Chenevert-Steffler; Richard Chandler
Date: 2020 | Outlet: Ecological Applications 2020:e02038
Conservation of at-risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two-step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently-developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models that are fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially-explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 years of data on the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50-yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <8% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 5.6% (95% CI: 0?60%) by year 2060. Restoring six ponds by increasing hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to 1.0% (0 ? 11%) in year 2060. We found little evidence that drought influences metapopulation viability when managers have the ability to maintain ponds that hold water throughout the year and are free of invasive species. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.
Papers & Reports Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model
Authors: E R Zylstra; D E Swann; Blake R Hossack; Erin Muths; R J Steidl
Outlet: Ecological Applications 29: e01859
Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.
Papers & Reports Twenty-nine years of population dynamics in a small-bodied montane amphibian
Authors: Erin Muths; R D Scherer; Staci M Amburgey; P. Stephen Corn
Outlet: Ecosphere
Identifying population declines before they reach crisis proportions is imperative given the current global decline in vertebrate fauna and the associated challenges and expense of recovery. Understanding life-histories and how the environment influences demography are critical aspects of this challenge, as is determining the biological relevance of covariates that are best supported by data. We used 29 years of data on chorus frogs at two sites to estimate demographic parameters, examine life-history, assess weather-related covariates, and determine the magnitude of process variation in target parameters. Average estimates of survival probabilities were https://0.51 (SE=0.04) and https://0.43 (SE=0.04), and average estimates of recruitment probabilities were https://0.64 (SE=0.07) and https://0.44 (SE=0.04). Process variation accounted for &#61619; 76% of the total temporal variation in both parameters at one pond and in survival probability alone at the other, suggesting that the covariates in our top models were explaining predominantly process rather than sampling variation. Estimates of population growth rates indicated a declining population at one pond (i.e., negative population growth rates in 15 of 18 years) and comparisons with historical estimates suggested declines in survival probability at the other. The amount of deviance explained was low, providing little support for the influence of covariates on target parameters, despite model selection support. Synthesis and applications: This analysis illustrates the value of disentangling components of variance when assessing demographic drivers and highlights the need for adequate demographic information in assigning conservation labels.
Papers & Reports Longevity and population age structure of the arroyo southwestern toad (Anaxyrus californicus) with drought implications
Authors: Robert N Fisher; Cheryl S Brehme; Stacie A Hathaway; T Hovey; M L Warburton; D Stokes
Date: 2018-05-20 | Outlet: Ecology and Evolution
The arroyo southwestern toad is a specialized and federally endangered amphibian endemic to the coastal plains and mountains of central and southern California and northwestern Baja California. It is largely unknown how long these toads live in natural systems, how their population demographics vary across occupied drainages, and how hydrology affects age structure. We used skeletochronology to estimate the ages of adult arroyo toads in seven occupied drainages with varying surface water hydrology in southern California. We processed 179 adult toads with age estimates between one and six years. Comparisons between skeletochronological ages and known ages of PIT tagged toads showed that skeletochronology likely underestimated toad age by up to two years, indicating they may live to seven or eight years, but nonetheless major patterns were evident. Arroyo toads showed sexual size dimorphism with adult females reaching a maximum size of 12mm greater than males. Population age structure also varied among the sites. Age structure at sites with seasonally predictable surface water was biased toward younger individuals, which indicated stable recruitment for these populations. In contrast, age structures at the ephemeral sites were biased toward older individuals with cohorts roughly corresponding to higher rainfall years. These populations are driven by surface water availability, a stochastic process, and are thus more unstable. Based on our estimates of toad ages, climate predictions of extreme and prolonged drought events could mean that the number of consecutive dry years could surpass the maximum life span of toads making them vulnerable to extirpation, especially in ephemeral freshwater systems. Understanding the relationship between population demographics and hydrology is essential for predicting species resilience to projected changes in weather and rainfall patterns. The arroyo toad serves as a model for understanding potential species responses to long term climatic and hydrologic changes in Mediterranean stream systems. We recommend development of adaptive management strategies to address these threats.