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Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km2 landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ? 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Understanding the distribution of pathogens across landscapes and within host populations is a common aim of wildlife managers. Despite the need for unbiased inferences about these parameters to plan effective management interventions, many researchers fail to account for imperfect pathogen detection and instead report only raw data, which may lead to improper management. We demonstrate analyses of ranavirus detection data in the Patuxent Research Refuge using an occupancy modeling approach, which yields unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence. To improve inference and reporting of pathogen and disease parameters, we describe our approach in-text and provide a written tutorial on how to fit these models using the freely available software Program PRESENCE. In our case study, ranavirus prevalence was underestimated up to 30% if imperfect detection was ignored. After accounting for imperfect detection, estimates of ranavirus prevalence in larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) were higher than in larval spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). In addition, we found that the odds of detecting ranavirus in tail samples were 6.7 times higher than detecting ranavirus in liver samples. We discuss how this information can be used to design ranavirus surveillance studies. Our tutorial provides a clear guide for practitioners and researchers wishing to make unbiased inference in a variety of host-pathogen systems.

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the US Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species? life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15-years of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be https://0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

A research priority can be defined as a knowledge gap that, if resolved, identifies the optimal course of conservation action. We (a group of geographically distributed and multidisciplinary research scientists) used tools from nominal group theory and decision analysis to collaboratively identify and prioritize information needs within the context of disease-associated amphibian decline, in order to develop a strategy that would support US management agency needs. We developed iterated influence diagrams to create and assess a unified research strategy. We illustrated a transparent process for identifying specific knowledge gaps in amphibian disease ecology relevant to environmental management, and then constructed a research plan to address these uncertainties. The resulting priorities include a need to: (1) understand the drivers of the community-disease relationship, (2) determine the mechanisms by which exposure to contaminants influence disease outcomes, (3) identify elements of terrestrial and aquatic habitats that stabilize host-pathogen dynamics, (4) discuss how metapopulations may be managed to reduce the speed and intensity of disease outbreaks, and (5) define the relationship between habitat management and the environmental and host microbiomes. Along with identifying research priorities for disease management, we present the details of the process used to develop a consensus plan for addressing disease-related declines in amphibians on federally managed lands of the United States.

Occupancy models provide a reliable measure of species distributions while accounting for imperfect detectability. The cost of accounting for false absences is that occupancy surveys typically require repeated visits to a site or multiple-observer techniques. More efficient methods of estimating detection probabilities would allow more sites to be surveyed for the same effort, resulting in more information about the ecological processes leading to occupancy. Time-to-detection surveys allow the estimation of detection probability based on a single site visit by one observer, and therefore might be an efficient technique for herpetological occupancy studies. We evaluated the use of time-to-detection surveys to estimate the occupancy of pond-breeding amphibians at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, including variables that affected detection rates and the probability of occurrence. We found that detection times were short enough and occupancy high enough to reliably estimate the probability of occurrence of three pond-breeding amphibians at Point Reyes National Seashore, and that survey and site conditions had species-specific effects on detection rates. In particular, relative abundance was negatively related to the time to initial detection of all species, and pond area was positively related to time to initial detection for Sierran Treefrogs (Hyliola sierra) and Rough-skinned Newts (Taricha granulosa). Rough-skinned newt time to initial detection also was affected by date, with lowest initial detection time in early summer. California Red-legged Frog (Rana draytonii) time to detection was lowest in ponds with a mean depth of 0.6 m, and higher in shallower and deeper ponds. Probability of occurrence of Sierran Treefrogs and Rough-skinned Newts was negatively related to the presence of fish and pond area. Rarely detected species required constraints on priors to fit time-to-detection models. Time-to-detection surveys can provide an efficient method of estimating detection probabilities and accounting for false absences in occupancy studies of reptiles and amphibians.

Movement of individuals has been described as one of the best studied, but least understood concepts in ecology. The magnitude of movements, routes, and probability of movement, has significant application to conservation. Information about movement can inform efforts to model species persistence and is particularly applicable in situations where specific threats (e.g., disease) may depend on the movement of hosts and potential vectors. We estimated the probability of movement (breeding dispersal and permanent emigration) in a metapopulation of 16 breeding sites for boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas). We used a multi-state mark-recapture approach unique in its complexity (16 sites over 18 years) to address questions related to these movements and variation in resident survival. We found that individuals had a 1-2% probability of dispersing in a particular year and that approximately 10-20% of marked individuals were transient and observed in the metapopulation only once. Resident survival probabilities differed by season, with 71-90% survival from emergence from hibernation through early post-breeding and > 97% survival from mid/late active season through hibernation. Movement-related probabilities are needed to predict species range expansions and contractions, estimate population and metapopulation dynamics, understand host-pathogen and native-invasive species interactions, and to evaluate the relative effects of proposed management actions.

Many amphibians use multiple habitats across seasons. Information on seasonal habitat use, movement between seasonal habitat types, and habitats that may be particularly valuable is important to conservation and management. We used radio-telemetry to study late- season movement and habitat use by Oregon Spotted Frog (Rana pretiosa) at 9 sites from 4 populations along the Cascade Mountains in Oregon. Movement rates declined with date and were the lowest at the end of tracking in December and January. Frogs across our sites used vegetated shallows in late summer and early fall. In fall, frogs used a range of habitat types, and at several sites moved to specialized distinctive habitats such as springs, interstices in lava rock, and semi-terrestrial beaver channels. Distance between first and last tracking location was <250 m for 84.5% (49/58) of frogs, ranged up to 1145 m, and was greater for frogs in ditch habitats than those not in ditches. DistinctiveSpecialized features like springs or semi-terrestrial retreats can host multiple frogs and may represent particularly valuable wintering habitat for R. pretiosa in some sites in their Oregon range.

Invasive species are a major threat to the persistence of native species, particularly in systems where ephemeral aquatic habitats have been converted to or replaced by permanent water and predators such as fish have been introduced. Within the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA, the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates [=Rana] catesbeianus) has been successfully eradicated to help recover Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). However, other non-native predators including sunfish (Lepomis spp) are present in some permanent water bodies. During four consecutive years (2014-2017) we detected both the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog and sunfish at one permanent water body in the Altar Valley. This suggests that despite the potential negative effect of predatory fish on amphibians, there may be conditions where the Chiricahua leopard frog may be able to co-occur with this non-native predator. A better understanding of rare situations of co-occurrence with non-native predators may contribute to our understanding of why co-occurrence happens in some but not all systems and whether conservation strategies can be developed in situations where complete eradication of non-native predators is infeasible.

Identifying population declines before they reach crisis proportions is imperative given the current global decline in vertebrate fauna and the associated challenges and expense of recovery. Understanding life-histories and how the environment influences demography are critical aspects of this challenge, as is determining the biological relevance of covariates that are best supported by data. We used 29 years of data on chorus frogs at two sites to estimate demographic parameters, examine life-history, assess weather-related covariates, and determine the magnitude of process variation in target parameters. Average estimates of survival probabilities were https://0.51 (SE=0.04) and https://0.43 (SE=0.04), and average estimates of recruitment probabilities were https://0.64 (SE=0.07) and https://0.44 (SE=0.04). Process variation accounted for &#61619; 76% of the total temporal variation in both parameters at one pond and in survival probability alone at the other, suggesting that the covariates in our top models were explaining predominantly process rather than sampling variation. Estimates of population growth rates indicated a declining population at one pond (i.e., negative population growth rates in 15 of 18 years) and comparisons with historical estimates suggested declines in survival probability at the other. The amount of deviance explained was low, providing little support for the influence of covariates on target parameters, despite model selection support. Synthesis and applications: This analysis illustrates the value of disentangling components of variance when assessing demographic drivers and highlights the need for adequate demographic information in assigning conservation labels.

The introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator-prey relationships. However, non-native predators may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g. mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica
Mountains, situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect that non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) have on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.) and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared to native dragonfly nymphs as well as a reduced efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient mosquito predators compared to crayfish and dragonfly
nymphs suffered reduced efficiency in the presence of crayfish. Analyses of field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly
nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency, and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.

Comparative landscape genetics has uncovered high levels of variability in which landscape factors affect connectivity among species and regions. However, the relative importance of species traits vs. environmental variation for predicting landscape patterns of connectivity is unresolved. We provide a test with a landscape genetics study of two sister taxa of frogs, the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) and the Columbia spotted frog (R. luteiventris) in Oregon and Idaho, USA. Rana pretiosa is relatively more dependent on moisture for dispersal than R. luteiventris, so if species traits influence connectivity, we predicted that connectivity among R. pretiosa populations would be more positively associated with moisture than R. luteiventris. However, if environmental differences are important drivers of gene flow, we predicted that connectivity would be more positively related to moisture in arid regions. We tested these predictions using eight microsatellite loci and gravity models in two R. pretiosa regions and four R. luteiventris regions (n = 1,168 frogs). In R. pretiosa, but not R. luteiventris, connectivity was positively related to mean annual precipitation, supporting our first prediction. In contrast, connectivity was not more positively related to moisture in more arid regions. Various temperature metrics were important predictors for both species and in all regions, but the directionality of their effects varied. Therefore, the pattern of variation in drivers of connectivity was consistent with predictions based on species traits rather than on environmental variation.

Until publication, communication of provisional scientific findings beyond participants in the study is typically limited. This practice helps assure scientific integrity. However, a dilemma arises when a provisional finding has urgent societal consequences that may be exacerbated by delay. This dilemma may be particularly pronounced when a discovery concerns wildlife health, which could have implications for conservation, public health, or domestic animal health. Eleven researchers suggest that common concerns about directed prepublication communication largely stem from misperceptions and that none should cause a delay in the communication of time-sensitive provisional findings to appropriate authorities. Instead, they suggest that rapid communication of a provisional discovery could be beneficial, such as in the example they use involving the potential discovery of the amphibian fungal pathogen Bsal that is currently causing salamander die-offs in Europe.

Pharmaceuticals, hormones, pesticides, and other bioactive contaminants (BCs) are commonly detected in surface water and bed sediment in urban and suburban areas, but these contaminants are understudied in remote locations. In Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA, BCs may threaten the reproductive success and survival of native aquatic species, benthic communities, and pelagic food webs. In 2012-2013, 67 water, 57 sediment, 63 fish, 10 frog, and 12 quality-control samples (8 water and 4 sediment) were collected from 20 sites in RMNP. Samples were analyzed for 369 parameters including 149 pharmaceuticals, 22 hormones, 137 pesticides, and 61 other chemicals or conditions to provide a representative assessment of BC occurrence within RMNP. Results indicate that BCs were detected in water and/or sediment from both remote and more accessible locations in RMNP. The most commonly detected BCs in water were caffeine, camphor, para-cresol, and DEET; and the most commonly detected BCs in sediment were indole, 3-methyl-1H-indole, para-cresol, and 2,6-dimethyl-naphthalene. Some detected contaminants, including carbaryl, caffeine, and oxycodone, are clearly attributable to direct local human input, whereas others may be transported into the park atmospherically (e.g., atrazine) or have local natural sources (e.g., para-cresol). One or more pharmaceuticals were detected in at least 1 sample from 15 of 20 sites. Most of the 29 detected pharmaceuticals are excreted primarily in human urine, not feces. Elevated net estrogenicity was observed in 18% of water samples, and elevated vitellogenin in blood was observed in 12% of male trout, both evidence of potential endocrine disruption. Hormone concentrations in sediment tended to be greater than concentrations in water. Most BCs were observed at concentrations below those not expected to pose adverse effects to aquatic life. Results indicate that even in remote locations aquatic wildlife can be exposed to pharmaceuticals, hormones, pesticides, and other bioactive contaminants.

We quantified the response of amphibian communities to climatic variability across the United States and Canada using more than 500,000 observations for 81 species across 86 study areas. We estimated the relationships between annual variation in climate variables and local colonization and persistence probabilities across more than 5000 surveyed sites. This allowed us to estimate sensitivity to change in five climate variables. Climate sensitivity differs greatly among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-history, and phylogeny. Local species richness was especially sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter temperature. These results allowed us to ask whether changing climate explains strong overall rates of decline in species richness observed in our data set. We found that recent change in the climate variables we measured does not explain why North American amphibian richness is rapidly declining, but does explain why some populations decline faster than others.&#8195;

Energy production in the Williston Basin, located in the Prairie Pothole Region of central North America, has increased rapidly over the last several decades. Advances in disposal practices of saline wastewaters (brines) co-produced during energy production have reduced ecological risks, but spills still occur often and legacy practices of releasing brines into the environment caused persistent salinization in many areas. Aside from sodium and chloride, these brines contain elevated concentrations of heavy metals, ammonium, volatile organic compounds, hydrocarbons and radionuclides. Amphibians are especially sensitive to chloride but interactions among other environmental pollutants are possible wetlands contaminated by brines. We collected bed sediment and larval amphibians (Ambystoma mavortium, Lithobates pipiens and Pseudacris maculata) from wetlands in Montana and North Dakota representing a range of brine contamination history and severity to determine if contamination was associated with metal concentrations in sediments and if metal accumulation in tissues varied by species and feeding traits. Brine contamination was positively associated with the concentrations of sodium and strontium in sediments and negatively correlated with mercury. However, concentrations of several metals were correlated with differences in feeding traits (grazers vs. predators), which suggests frequent contact with the sediments could lead to greater ingestion of metal-laden materials. Although many of these metals may not be directly linked with energy development, the potential additive or synergistic effects of exposure along with elevated chloride from brines could have important consequences for aquatic organisms. To effectively manage amphibian populations in wetlands contaminated by saline wastewaters we need a more robust understanding of how life history traits, species-specific susceptibilities and the physical-chemical properties of metals co-occurring in wetland sediments interact with other stressors like chloride and wetland drying.

This is the first field study of its kind to combine radio telemetry, passive samplers, and pesticide accumulation in tissues to characterize the amphibian exposome as it relates to pesticides. Understanding how habitat drives exposure in individuals (i.e., their exposome), and how that relates to individual health is critical to managing species in an agricultural landscape where pesticide exposure is likely. We followed 72 northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens) in two agricultural wetlands for insight into where and when individuals are at high risk of pesticide exposure. Novel passive sampling devices (PSDs) were deployed at sites where telemetered frogs were located, then moved to subsequent locations as frogs were radio-tracked. Pesticide concentration in PSDs varied by habitat and was greatest in agricultural fields where frogs were rarely found. Pesticide concentrations in frogs were greatest in spring when frogs were occupying wetlands compared to late summer when frogs occupied terrestrial habitats. Our results indicate that habitat and time of year influence exposure and accumulation of pesticides in amphibians. Our study illustrates the feasibility of quantifying the amphibian exposome to interpret the role of habitat use in pesticide accumulation in frogs to better manage amphibians in agricultural landscapes.

Understanding the ecosystem-level persistence of pathogens is essential for predicting
and measuring host-pathogen dynamics. However, this process is often masked, in
part due to a reliance on host-based pathogen detection methods. The amphibian
pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal) are
pathogens of global conservation concern. Despite having free-living life stages, little is
known about the distribution and persistence of these pathogens outside of their
amphibian hosts. We combine historic amphibian monitoring data with contemporary
host- and environment-based pathogen detection data to obtain estimates of Bd
occurrence independent of amphibian host distributions. We also evaluate differences
in filter- and swab-based detection probability and assess inferential differences arising
from using different decision criteria used to classify samples as positive or negative.
Water filtration-based detection probabilities were lower than those from swabs but
were >10%, and swab-based detection probabilities varied seasonally, declining in the
early fall. The decision criterion used to classify samples as positive or negative was
important; using a more liberal criterion yielded higher estimates of Bd occurrence than
when a conservative criterion was used. Different covariates were important when
using the liberal or conservative criterion in modeling Bd detection. We found evidence
of long-term Bd persistence for several years after an amphibian host species of
conservation concern, the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), was last detected.
Our work provides evidence of long-term Bd persistence in the ecosystem and
underscores the importance of environmental samples for understanding and
mitigating disease-related threats to amphibian biodiversity.